The Korean Situation

So. We have the rabid, slobbering dog called Korea to the north, and a saner, better fed and generally much better treated dog to the south, also called Korea.

For anyone who isn’t really aware of the situation, here is how it stands as I understand it. The two Koreas do not get along. Not one bit. There have been a few skirmishes in the past year between the two, and the North did some kind of nuclear testing not so long ago. Nobody really seems sure how far along they are, but they really, really want nukes. They may already have them. We don’t really know.

On Tuesday, the North fired some artillery on a small island owned by the South by the name of Yeonpyeong, killing two military personnel and two civilians, and destroying a bunch of shit. When I read the news, it knocked my socks off – this could possibly, just possibly, be the beginning of World War Three. It may be a long shot, but this is the most likely candidate we have had for a while.

South Korea is backed by the USA. North Korea is backed by China – or at least, China see they have a vested interest in keeping a united Korea out of US influence, which is what would happen if the South consumes the North. This isn’t just about a divided country. This involves arguably the two most powerful nations on earth. And neither particularly wants to tangle with the other.

As it stands, both Koreas are doing ‘military exercises’ on their shared border. It doesn’t take a genius to see through the doublespeak and see both sides shoring up their defenses, posturing and generally doing what large groups of men with guns do. Needless to say, things are tense. And now, the US is sending a carrier group into the Yellow Sea to join in ‘military exercises’ with the South Korean Navy. A carrier group is not a small force. To put it bluntly, the US is joining in the dick-waving contest. And the Chinese don’t like it.

I don’t know where this is going. I am no journalist, no military expert. But I’m not stupid either, and it isn’t hard to see what could go wrong here.

I firmly believe that North Korea is a major threat to the world as a whole, or at the very least want to be. At best, they are dangerously unpredictable, and an uncomfortable neighbor for South Korea. They need to be dealt with. Eventually, it will probably come to war. I hate war. But in this case, it seems like grim necessity. North Korea is already dirt poor and does not trade with other nations – trade sanctions will do even less than they usually do. At some point, a strong force, probably the US, will go in their and stomp them. Hell, look what they did to Afganistan and Iraq. I wouldn’t be surprised if the only thing keeping the US from doing so before now was the possibility of nukes.

But all else aside, it is one hell of a tense situation. What could possibly go wrong? Oh, you know, just EVERYTHING.

UPDATE: Upwards of 20,000 North Koreas are returning home, quite possibly for military action.

It just gets better and better. More than 20k North Koreans working in Russia (under tight control by NK government handlers) seem to have begun returning to North Korea, people just dropping their jobs en masse and leaving. According to the report I am reading (found here), known North Korea secret service personnel are also leaving.

It seems almost certain that this action has been decided by the NK government. What is less certain is the purpose, though that isn’t a hard guess either – war preparations. Those are quite possibly 20,000 soldiers and other support staff that will be fighting in the war that looks more likely with every new piece of news.

I’m not trying to fear monger here – there are plenty of ways that this situation might defuse with no major conflict at all. But at this point…well. To me the question has shifted from ‘Will there be further hostilities?’ to ‘What scope will these hostilities take?’. WWIII still seems unlikely, but more and more it seems a war is coming to the region.